Since its inception following the events of October 7, 2023, the “Day After the War Forum” has explored geo-political aspects of the on-going “Iron Swords” war between Israel and Hamas, within the broader context of the resolution of conflicts around the world. In January 2024, drawing on this research and on the expertise of specialists in Middle Eastern studies, psychology, law, international relations, and security and defence, we formulated a geopolitical plan—“Israel’s Best Interest: A Regional Security Alliance”—which we believe would best serve the objectives of the war and the security of Israel. This is an update to the original document
The challenge: Since October 7, Israel has been conducting a military campaign on several fronts in addition to fighting Hamas in the Gaza Strip. These fronts include Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, pro-Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq, and since April 2024 direct confrontation with Iran. However, and despite the growing complexity of this conflict, an opportunity has presented itself: Israel is in a position to realize its security goals, take the initiative, and chart a safe and stable future for its people.
The solution: Ensuring the long-lasting security of the State of Israel by conducting the military campaign with a coalition of moderate anti-Jihadist countries in the Middle East, supported by Western countries and led by the United States. In the long run, this coalition will take the form of a Regional Security Alliance.
Presumptions:
· The current conflict reflects a larger inter-axis conflict: on the one hand the Iran-Jihadist axis, tacitly supported by China and Russia; on the other an axis of moderate Arab countries, with ties to the Western world
· There is an opportunity to form an Israeli-Western-Arab coalition, which would significantly contribute to the security of the State of Israel, in both the short and long term.
· October 7 was a turning point. The countries of the moderate axis now understand the danger that the Iranian-Jihadist axis poses to the stability of the Middle East, and they are interested in cooperating widely to weaken this axis.
Short term: Conducting the military campaign in collaboration with a regional-Western coalition.
Conducting the different fronts of Israel's ongoing military campaign within the framework of a regional-Western coalition would allow for a division of labour between the relevant actors. In the Gaza Strip and the north of Israel for instance, Israel will be in charge of the military aspects, while coalition partners from the Arab world will be responsible for all civilian matters (in the Gaza Strip, rehabilitation, humanitarian aid, and the establishment of a civil government; in Lebanon, strengthening the economy, the army, and the government). With respect to the Houthis in Yemen, Saudia Arabia and Western countries would be responsible for the military and political aspects of the campaign. For Iran, the coalition as a whole will collaborate in defending against air attacks and in taking diplomatic and economic measures as needed.
Mid-long term: Establishing a Regional Security Alliance.
Generally, a regional security alliance is a framework of multi-state agreements, designed to formalize relations between a group of countries and their commitment to supporting each other’s security interests. Capitalizing on the relative strength of each member nation, a regional security alliance enables the mutual safeguarding of a broad geographical area.
Areas for potential collaboration within such an alliance encompass numerous areas of mutual benefit, including security, economic growth, trade agreements, a transportation corridor (a “peace track”), regional hi-tech initiatives, natural resources and climate change, and tourism.
In the Middle East, such an alliance can be realized today through the cooperation of all the moderate Middle Eastern states—including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Oman—with the backing of the United States (and, potentially, European countries).
The establishment of a regional security alliance would represent total victory over the notion that the State of Israel can be destroyed.
The pros and cons of operating within a regional-Western coalition:
Pros:
Working within a regional-Western coalition offers a range of benefits. These include leverage for a deal to release the Israeli hostages and bring them home; victory over Hamas—specifically, governance of the Gaza Strip by a moderate authority, supported by members of the coalition; disconnecting the Gaza Strip from the Iranian axis; a commitment from the coalition's members to rehabilitate the Gaza Strip (with Israeli participation); avoiding a prolonged campaign by the IDF in the Gaza Strip; leverage for a settlement in the north; normalization with Saudi Arabia (which Hamas is seeking to prevent); and an Israeli declaration on ending the war.
There are many risks attendant to Israel acting outside the framework of a regional-Western coalition. The countries of the moderate Sunni axis may be drawn closer to Iran, Russia or China, as has happened in the past (and may even be happening now); the USA might “withdraw” from the Middle East, as it has in the past; the Abraham Accords and Israel's peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan might be damaged; Israel would continue to lose support from other countries, especially in the Western world. All these would lead Israel to a strategic position worse than before October 7: the strengthening of the Iranian-Jihadist axis, the weakening of the moderate axis, the weakening of Israel militarily (due to limitations on the supply of weapons), diplomatically, and economically. These processes are already unfolding.
Cons:
The principal disadvantage of operating within a regional-Western coalition is that Israel would be required to meet the demands of additional actors, as has happened in the past. As an example, Israel may be compelled to assent to the purchase of F-35 fighter planes by the United Arab Emirates.
The Regional Security Alliance and the Gaza Strip
The moderate axis will be entrusted with civilian aspects of the administration of the Gaza Strip, through a provisional governing entity, independent of the United Nations, that will be established for this purpose. This entity will take charge of all part of the Gaza Strip from which the IDF has withdrawn. This governing entity will ensure the delivery of humanitarian aid to the Gazans rather than Hamas, and will oversee the rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip, the de-radicalization of the population of Gaza (including the education system), and the establishment of stable, peace-seeking and corruption-free Palestinian governing bodies, to be given full governance of the Strip in due course.
If Israel does not pursue this route, the IDF will remain present in the Gaza Strip as an occupying military force, forced to cope with a guerilla war that will claim many victims and strengthen Hamas’ image as protector of the Palestinian people. In addition, Israel alone would bear the high cost of rehabilitating the Gaza Strip and running a civil administration for a hostile local population. Furthermore, occupation of the Strip would reinforce calls for resistance among Palestinians at large, disrupt Israel's peace agreements with its neighbors—Egypt, Jordan, and the Gulf states—and will impede normalization of its relations with Saudi Arabia. It will also undermine the support of Western countries, including the United States—support that is vital to the preservation of the military, economic, and political power of the State of Israel. That would be Hamas’ victory.
The Regional Security Alliance and the Palestinian perspective
Israel's best interest is to connect the Palestinians with the moderate Arab and Western countries axis and cut them off the Iranian-Jihadist axis.
A regional alliance could facilitate a change in both government and ideology among the Palestinians. To this end, Israel must act through two avenues: by shaping the nature of Palestinian governing mechanisms, and by influencing the Palestinian public.
Governing mechanisms: The Israeli government must take the lead in discussions concerning the future of the Palestinians, to ensure that governance of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank aligns with the moderate axis. This entails, inter alia, the requirements that power be transferred to the Palestinians only after they have demonstrated the ability to establish a stable, accountable government that strives for peace; that Hamas and other parties subscribing to the ideology of obliterating the State of Israel are excluded from the Palestinian governing structures; that the Palestinian education system is deradicalized; and that the territories under Palestinian control are demilitarized.
The Palestinian public: Alongside the significant blow inflicted upon the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip by the IDF, Israel must offer the Palestinians a clear trajectory towards independence, security, and prosperity. Only through this approach will it be possible to reap the fruits of its military achievements, and to ensure that these achievements lead to security for Israel. Historical precedents demonstrate that a severe military strike is only effective if accompanied by such a vision.
A moderate and demilitarized Palestinian state alongside the State of Israel is not a reward for terrorism, but rather a complete victory over it!
· The goal of Hamas and Iran is not a Palestinian state; their purpose is to destroy Israel.
· The destruction of this goal is only possible with the full recognition of the State of Israel by the Arab world.
· A regional security alliance underscores absolute victory over Hamas—a heavy military, organizational, and governmental blow, elimination of the idea that the State of Israel can be destroyed, and cementing the connection of Israel and the Palestinians to the moderate axis.
· Israel should, therefore, offer the Palestinians the alternative of a demilitarized, independent, stable, and prosperous state; this is the only way to excise the Palestinians from the Jihadist axis and connect them to the moderate axis.
The Regional Security Alliance and the Lebanese perspective
If Israel were to engage in a full-scale war against Hezbollah in Lebanon outside the framework of a regional-international coalition, it would undoubtably suffer serious damage.
Israel can remove the threat from Hezbollah only if it acts within the framework of a regional-international coalition, competent to take diplomatic and economic measures as well as military ones should these be needed. The purpose should be to destroy Hezbollah's military infrastructure while strengthening Lebanon. Iran's Jihadist proxies flourish in failing countries where the government is weak and chaos reigns—Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. A military blow to Hezbollah will be of no use if it is not accompanied by measures that strengthen Lebanon's political powers, enabling it to deal with the jihadist threat and join the moderate axis.
The Regional Security Alliance and the Israeli Hostages
The essence of the dispute over the hostage deal stems from the fact that it is a strategic deal that will end the war. The conditions for the hostage deal are therefore the conditions for ending the war.
A regional alliance would answer fears about “the day after.” It would guarantee the end of Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip while preventing a governmental vacuum, establishing an alternative governing system.
A regional alliance would also give Israel a wider range of options at the negotiation table, in addition to the release of Palestinian prisoners, return of Palestinians to the north of the Gaza Strip, the end of hostilities, and the withdrawal of the IDF. These include: the expulsion of Hamas leaders from Gaza; a promise not to harm the remaining Hamas members, as alliance members would be able to guarantee their de-Hamasization; involvement of Hamas members in the day-after administration of Gaza, on condition that they commit to abandoning terror and joining the moderates.
What should Israel do Now?
Israel's government should announce a hostage deal and the end of the war in Gaza as part of a broad geo-strategic move, which would include a Regional Security Alliance (the Abraham Alliance) under the leadership of the United States and in partnership with moderate Arab and Western countries.
To set this in motion, the State of Israel should declare that it is committed to the Two-State Solution, on condition that the Palestinian state will be demilitarized and peace-seeking, such that Israel can exist securely by its side.
This has been Israel's position for decades, since at least the 1991 Madrid Conference. As early as 1957, Menachem Begin said, “After war comes peace… we do not want to destroy the Arab nations. We bring them the message of peace, liberation, and progress... There is always a will for true peace.” Israel pays nothing for such a declaration. It is clear that such a declaration comes with the demand for thorough reform on the part of the Palestinians, a process that will includes de-radicalization, fundamental changes to the education system, and a genuine fight against terror. The process will be gradual and Israel will enjoy a broad range of safety throughout its course.
What would Israel gain from this declaration? A lot—and right away. In the immediate term, the declaration will restore Israel's image in the world, and will help in resolving legal proceedings currently being held against Israel and Israelis at The Hague and other international forums. It would prepare the ground for a regional alliance that would grant critical leverage for a hostage deal and change of governance in the Gaza Strip. Most of all, such an alliance could change the balance of power in the Middle East and defeat the idea that Israel can be destroyed.
Conclusion: A Regional Security Alliance as a Win-Win for Israel.
· At war: taking advantage of Israel's military achievements and its international support for achieving the goals of overthrowing Hamas' rule, returning the hostages, and declaring the end of the war.
· On the northern front: removing Hezbollah’s threat with the help of a regional-international coalition, taking diplomatic, economic, and military measures if needed to destroy Hezbollah’s military capabilities, while strengthening the governance and economy of Lebanon.
· Guaranteeing Israel’s security for future generations: bringing the stagnant status quo to an end; returning the initiative into Israel's hands; strengthening regional security (against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran); a long-term vision of regional integration; recognition of Israel by the Arab world; and an end to the fantasy of Israel’s destruction.
· Reinforcing Israel’s position in the world: Israel as an active initiator (not a rogue state), regaining international backing, strengthening alliances, harnessing overlapping interests with Arab states and the West in a regional-international struggle against extremists, positioning Israel as a powerful force at the centre of world geo-politics—a political and moral light for the nations.
· A pragmatic approach to the Palestinians: fighting Palestinian aspirations to destroy Israel, incorporating them into the moderate axis, insisting that they abandon terror and recognize Israel's existence, and reaching out in partnership within a moderate regional axis together with Arab countries.
· Risk-opportunity in Israel's favour: a gradual trust-building process with the Palestinians in which Israel safeguards its security, while it receives right away the benefits of normalization and a regional alliance, in exchange for future recognition of a Palestinian state.
· Wide public support: a majority of Israelis support this strategy.
Proposal for a Government Decision:
1. Israel declares that it promotes Netanyahu’s three-phase hostage and ceasefire deal in accord with UN Security Council Resolution 2735:
· Stage 1: Return of some of the hostages, a ceasefire, withdrawal of IDF forces from populated areas in the Gaza Strip, return of Palestinian civilians to their homes, and the distribution of humanitarian aid.
· Stage 2: Return of all other surviving hostages, a permanent end to hostilities, and full withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip.
· Stage 3: Return of the remains of any deceased hostages to their families, and the start of a multi-year reconstruction plan for the Gaza Strip.
2. Israel extends a hand to the Palestinian people and its leadership to choose a life of stability, prosperity, security, dignity, and independence, and to reject those who promote terror and aspire to destroy Israel.
3. Israel will initiate, with the United States, an international conference to determine the framework for an interim government in the Gaza Strip, measures to prevent the return of Hamas, details of the plan to rehabilitate and deradicalize the Gaza Strip, the conditions for transferring the rule over the Gaza Strip to a moderate Palestinian government, and the implementation of United Nations Resolution 1701 in Lebanon.
4. Israel will take action to promote the normalization of the relations with Saudia Arabia and additional Arab and Muslim countries.
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